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A Thirteen-Year Overview of Inventory Levels- Where’s the Balance?
The two graphs here illustrate a thirteen-year overview of inventory levels in both King and Snohomish Counties, highlighting the 2007 crash. Inventory levels are measured by the months of available inventory. For example, if there were 60 homes available in July and 30 homes sold in July, you would be left with two months of inventory; meaning that if no new homes came to market, the demand of 30 homes per month would absorb the 60 available homes in two months. A buyer's market is defined by 6+ months of inventory, a balanced market, 3-6 months and a seller's market, 0-3 months. From March to June of this year we averaged 1.1 months of inventory in King County and 1.2 months in Snohomish County, both extreme seller's markets.
In King County over the last 13 years we saw three years of a buyer's market, which happened during the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression, after the crash of the housing market in 2007. This economic fallout was a result of predatory lending practices, which created a large population of buyers who were not truly qualified to purchase a home. This oversaturated the market and then led it to its crash when those lending practices were shut down. These severe influences on the market led to quick jumps from a seller's to a buyer's market and then a buyer's to a seller's market. It only took one short year to transition from the seller's market of 2004-2006 to the three-year long buyer's market after the housing crash. Once the sub-prime lending options were shut down in July 2007, it eliminated many buyers, creating an extreme buyer's market. It also only took one short year to transition out of the downturn and back to a seller's market as the economy started to recover. It has been a seller's market in King County since May of 2012 – four years!
In Snohomish County over the last 13 years we saw four years of a buyer's market. Snohomish County was hit a bit harder by the Great Recession than our neighbor to the south, as it took longer to recover. It has been a seller's market in Snohomish County since May of 2012, except for one quarter of a balanced market in the beginning of 2014, when we saw a surge of new construction come to market due to the national builders releasing some neighborhoods they had acquired in the downturn.
Interestingly, the market shifts were brief because the downturn was so severe, which changed the market environment quickly. In order to clean up the predatory lending mistakes of 2004-2007, the market essentially had to come to a standstill and flush out all of the bad loans via foreclosure and short sales, which took five years. The only time we found ourselves in such an extreme buyer's market, was after one of the biggest economic fallouts of the last century. Once that corrected itself we quickly returned to a seller's market due to many positive factors.
Our available housing stock is affected by the limited land left to build on, a thriving job sector (especially in tech), historically low interest rates and the Greater Seattle area being a nice place to live. All four of these indicators have shrunk inventory and put upward pressure on prices. Sellers continue to enjoy great market returns, and buyers continue to fight to secure a home with a 4% interest rate, and not too far from their workplace. Additional inventory would be more than welcomed, it is very clear that we have the demand to absorb it. If you are curious about the value of your home in today's market or securing a purchase please contact one of our agents. We are always happy to help educate you on how this market can benefit your bottom line.
Market Update – Q1 2016
The 2016 real estate market is off to an extreme start! Strong buyer demand due to our flourishing job market and historically low interest rates are the driving force behind this market. Buyers often find themselves competing due to multiple offers which require seller-centric terms in order to win. Prices have continued to grow over the last two years, putting sellers in a very favorable equity position, freeing them up to make the moves they have been waiting for. Additional inventory would help slow price growth and make it less competitive for buyers, creating positive outcomes for everyone. Lending requirements remain stringent, unlike the past “up” market which created the bubble we experienced in 2008.
Scroll down for more details about the first quarter market in Snohomish County, south Snohomish County, north King County, the Eastside, Seattle Metro and south King County.
Snohomish County
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
Snohomish County ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.4 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.8 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 5% and 4% respectively in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 25% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
South Snohomish County
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
South Snohomish County ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.2 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.7 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 5% in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 27% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
North King County
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
North King County ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.1 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.6 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, the average price was up 2% in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 49% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
Eastside
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
The Eastside ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.3 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.9 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 4% in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 43% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
Seattle Metro
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
The Seattle Metro area ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.1 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.6 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 3% in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 47% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
South King County
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
South King County ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.4 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.8 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 6% and 3% respectively in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 39% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring, as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
This is only snapshots of the trends in our area. Please contact one of our agents if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.
Strategy is Key in an Extreme Market
The beginning of 2016 has been quite the ride so far in our local real estate market. It has been the most extreme seller's market we've ever seen. At the end of February, both King and Snohomish Counties ended the month with only one month of inventory based on pending sales. Pending numbers (the amount of homes going under contract) were up 35% in King County from the previous month and up 24% in Snohomish over the previous month. Demand is strong! How we manage that demand is critical. Every type of market calls upon different skills to achieve the best outcome for our clients. In this extreme seller's market the strategy one creates for their sellers to gain the best possible outcome is a fine-tuned, high-effort approach.
First, market research and price positioning not only takes studying the history of the market, but anticipating what is next, so no opportunities are missed. Second, properly bringing the home to market is still paramount. Even though there are less homes to choose from in this market, how a home "shows up" could make a difference of thousands of dollars in return for a seller. An investment in professional photography, staging and marketing only adds to the exposure, increasing interest from the buying public. Third, managing the demand – this is huge! This is where communication and being the calm in the storm is key. It is always our goal to harness control and bring calm during the intense initial market time. It is not our goal to take the first offer that comes our seller's way. Instead it is our goal to massage what the home has to offer over a set period of time in order to garner a great price for our Sellers, but also superior terms, such as waived contingencies. Fourth, it is our goal to end with a contract that has a great price, but also one that will make it to the closing table. There are obstacles in this accelerating market, such as passing appraisal, which we anticipate up front to insure a smooth journey through closing.
By completing extensive market research, studying upcoming trends, highlighting a property's features with superior marketing, executing a strategy to manage the demand and negotiating the best terms for our sellers, we are creating above market-average results! In the first two months of 2016, the average cumulative days on market in King County was 40.5 days and Snohomish County was 50.5. My office averaged 23 days and 25 days respectively. In those same two months the list to sale price ratio in King County was 100.5% and 99.5% in Snohomish County. My office averaged 101.2% and 103.1% respectively. Saved market time and higher price acceleration is resulting in a better bottom line for our clients.
These results do not come without a refined, strategic approach. Understanding the nuances that each market brings equals results in the best interest of our clients. If you or any one you know is contemplating participating in this extreme seller's market please contact one of our agents. It would be our honor to have the opportunity to help create and navigate a successful strategy resulting in a win.
