Quarterly Market Trends: South Snohomish County
Q4 2017
Price growth was particularly strong in 2017! Median was up 14% and average price up 12% over 2016. Median price in 2017 landed at $508,000 and the average at $543,000. The average amount of days it took to sell a house in 2017 was 24 days, which is 17% faster than 2016. The average list-to-sale price ratio over the last year was 101%, with the spring months as high as 103%! In 2017, inventory growth continued to be a challenge, with a 1% decrease in new listings compared to 2016. Even with inventory limitations there were 4% more sales! This phenomenon illustrates strong buyer demand and a need for more listings.
South Snohomish County real estate has seen a steady stream of buyers come our way due to affordability, reasonable commute times to job centers and quality of life. In fact, the median price in 2017 was 41% higher in north King County. Historically low interest rates continue to drive the market as well, they have helped offset the increase in prices. Sellers are enjoying great returns due to this phenomenon and buyers are securing mortgages with minor debt service.
This is only a snapshot of the trends in south Snohomish County; please contact us if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.
Demystifying the Zestimate®
Knowing the value of your home is helpful in many ways. It can help determine one’s net worth, help decide if a home sale or purchase is a financially feasible move, determine the ability to get a loan – and it’s just nice to know where your largest investment stands. Consumers have the option to access websites such as Zillow® to search the Zestimate® or other Automated Valuation Model (AVM) on their property.
A Zestimate is an AVM. The product of an automated valuation technology comes from analysis of public record data and computer decision logic combined to provide a calculated estimate of a probable selling price of a residential property. An AVM generally uses a combination of two types of evaluation, a hedonic model and a repeat sales index. The results of each are weighted, analyzed and then reported as a final estimate of value based on a requested date.
Often times when we talk with potential sellers, their Zestimate (or other AVMs) come up in the overall conversation, which is understandable. This information is relatively easy to access and gives the seller a starting point on the value of their home. Where an AVM can become dangerous is when a consumer thinks it’s accurate. Even worse, when a consumer makes a major financial decision solely based on this information. According to Zillow, less than half of all Zestimates in the Seattle metro area are even within 5.4% of the actual value, and they only give themselves a 2-star (fair) rating on their accuracy. In fact, they publish an accuracy report that you can view here.
In August, the average home price in the Seattle Metro area was $824,000. With less than half of all Zestimates within 5% of the actual value, that is a beginning margin of error of $41,200! Further, they claim that 72.3% of their Zestimates are within 10% of the actual value, which is a marked difference – up to $82,400. Where AVMs are incomplete is that the basis of their formula is tax records, which in our experience are often inaccurate. Also, and most importantly, an AVM does not take into consideration the condition of the home, the neighborhood and other environmental impacts such as school district, road noise and unsightly neighboring homes, to name a few.
At the end of the day, to give an accurate accounting of the value of a home in today’s market requires actually physically touring the home and the surrounding homes that compare. As well as considering current market conditions such as supply and demand and seasonality. An algorithm cannot accomplish this, but a real estate broker can.
So why does the Zestimate exist? Zillow is a publicly traded company (ZG) and their website is their vehicle to create profit. The Zestimate drives consumers to the website who are often dipping their toe in the pool to see what their home might be worth, or searching available homes for sale. When a consumer is searching on the website they are surrounded by real estate broker and mortgage broker ads on every page. These real estate brokers and mortgage brokers are paying for that advertising space, which is how Zillow makes its money and why there is a Zestimate. The Zestimate is not a public service, it is a widget to bring eyes to their advertising space which in turn, sells more ads.
Another important item to note is that Zillow does NOT have all available inventory in the Greater Seattle area on their website. In May, they cut off access to manually input listings, leaving some real estate firms unable to get their listings on the site any longer. Some firms just plainly chose not to syndicate to them. It is estimated that Zillow has between 70%-80% of the total available inventory on their site. In an inventory-tight market like the one we are in now, it is important for consumers to understand that if Zillow is the only source they are searching with, they may be missing out. Brokerage firm websites such as ours have a direct IDX feed from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service which refreshes every 15 minutes, insuring the accuracy and completeness of all listing data.
The moral of the story is this: use Zillow as one of the many tools in your real estate evaluation and search toolbox. Zillow provides a great starting point and contains a ton of information to whet your palate when embarking on a real estate endeavor. However, we live in a time of information overload and we are overstimulated at best. Nothing beats the evaluation and discernment of a knowledgeable and experienced real estate broker to help you determine accuracy, which will lead to the empowerment of clarity.
If you are curious about the value of your home in today’s market, please contact us. Any one of our experienced agents can provide an annual real estate review of all of your real estate holdings, or even dive deep into a complete comparative market analysis if you would find that helpful. It is our goal to help keep our clients informed and empower strong decisions.
Zillow® and Zestimate® are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.
Does it Make More Sense to Rent… or Own?
With Seattle’s robust job market and high housing costs, there has been a lot of talk lately about the cost of living in the Greater Seattle area. In fact, Seattle is now the 5th most expensive city to rent in the country according to a new study from Nested.com. The average monthly rental price for a one bedroom apartment in the city of Seattle is $1,790 according to Zumper.com, up 8.5% year-over-year; and a two bedroom is $2,470, up 6% year-over-year! With rising rental rates, still historically low interest rates, and home prices on the rise, the advantage of buying versus renting has become clear for folks who have a down payment saved, good debt-to-income ratios and strong credit. Currently, the breakeven horizon (the amount of time you need to own your home in order for owning to be a superior financial decision vs. renting) in the Greater Seattle area is 2.4 years according to Zillow research.
An additional study by Nested.com outlines the monthly rental costs for a single person or a family of four, as well as the yearly income required. In Seattle, it costs the average single person $1,288.76 a month to rent, which requires an annual income of $53,328.00. The average family of four costs $2,665.34 for monthly rent, and an annual income of $101,186.48. That is a lot of money one would be paying towards someone else’s investment.
There are several factors to consider that will lead you to make the best decision for your lifestyle and your financial bottom line. One of the biggest factors is interest rates! Currently, the rate for a 30-year fixed, conventional, conforming loan is hovering around 4.25%. That is amazingly and historically low, making the advantage of securing a mortgage huge. What is nice about having a mortgage is that the payment stays the same over the term of the loan. With renting, rates can be increased at any time, and you are paying down someone else’s asset, not your own. Owning gives the homeowner control over their overhead while getting to make their house their home. What is also so great about owning, is that once you have hit the breakeven horizon, every month that ticks away thereafter is building your nest egg in value. The long-term benefits of owning are abundant, including the stability of not being asked to move. These are important factors to consider for everyone, but especially the younger folks who are enjoying the benefits of Seattle’s attractive job market.
Where folks are having to compromise most due to affordability is commute times, and settling in less urban neighborhoods. Worth pointing out, is the average home price in South Snohomish County is 46% less than Seattle Metro – that is a huge savings! Some people, mainly millennials, have not been willing to give up living in the more core urban neighborhoods that have high walk scores and shorter commute times. That should be apt to change as rents are rising fastest in those areas. The advantages of moving out a little further and securing a home will start people on the track of building long term wealth.
If you or anyone you know is currently renting and is considering a change, please let us know as we would be happy to get their questions answered to help them make an informed decision.
Demand is High, Inventory Low… Here we Go!
The two graphs here illustrate the amount of homes for sale, the amount of homes that sold, pending sales and new listings over the past two years in King and Snohomish Counties. This gives us a good look at the simple principle of supply and demand. We are currently experiencing one of the strongest Seller’s markets in recent history. A Seller’s market is defined by having three or less months of available inventory. Currently, King and Snohomish counties have only 0.9 months of inventory based on pending sales. This means that if no new homes came to market, we would be sold out of homes in less than a month. What is crazy is that this inventory count is down 30% from the year prior, which was also an extreme Seller’s market!
Where this particular Seller’s market is unique, is that a decrease in new listings is not creating this environment, but very high buyer demand is. In fact, King County new listings were up 5% over the last year, but so were sales. In Snohomish County new listings were up 7% over last year, but sales were up 11%! Despite the increase in homes coming to market, demand has matched or outpaced, leaving us with the lowest inventory levels ever.
We can thank our local, thriving job market. So much so, that many people from out-of-state are relocating here to be a part of our economy and the quality of life the Greater Seattle area has to offer. We also have poised move-up buyers ready to cash in on their equity and first-timers ready for action. Combine the healthy local economy with strong equity levels and still historically low interest rates, and the audience for homes that come to market is huge!
Multiple offers are very common and prices are increasing. Median price is up complete year over year in King County by 13% and Snohomish County by 10%. This growth in equity has provided home owners the option to make the moves they have been waiting for, such as a move-up, right-size or relocating out of the area for retirement.
These graphs predict that we will see an increase in new listings as we head into the Spring and Summer months, which is needed to meet demand. If you are considering putting your home on the market this year I would advise the sooner the better, as buyers did not hibernate for the winter and will not be worried about flowers blooming in your front yard. Sellers that beat the second quarter increase in listings will enjoy a larger audience due to less competition.
The importance of both buyers and sellers aligning with a knowledgeable, well-researched and responsive broker is paramount. One might think that it is “easy” to sell a house in this market, but how the preparation, exposure, marketing, management of all the communication and negotiations are handled can make or break a seller’s net return on the sale. While market times are short, they are intense! Negotiations are starting as soon as the property hits the market by educating buyers and their brokers on exactly what a seller would like by the time offers are due. The goal is to bring the sellers I work with not only the highest price, but the best-termed offer that I know is going to close.
If you’re a buyer, it is overwhelmingly important that you are aligned with an agent that knows how to win in this market. Terms, negotiations, financial preparation, communication, responsiveness and market knowledge are what set a highly capable selling agent apart, and are required to prevail. While the market for buyers is fierce, we can assure you that with a well thought out and executed plan, we have helped buyers win.
If you have any curiosities or questions regarding the value of your current home or purchase opportunities in today’s market, please contact us. It is my goal to help keep you informed and empower strong decisions.
Affordability: Commute Times & Interest Rates
These graphs illustrate the brass tacks of affordability between King and Snohomish Counties, measured by the average monthly payment. Most recently in September, the average monthly payment was 35% higher in King County compared to Snohomish County. What is fascinating, though, is comparing today’s average monthly payment to peak monthly payments back in 2007! In King County, monthly payments are currently 21% less than during the peak, and in Snohomish County, 36% less. That is a lot of saved monthly overhead. Note that this has everything to do with today’s historical interest rates, as average prices are higher now than in 2007. When one buys or refinances a house, they are not only securing the property, but securing the rate for the life of the loan.
Close proximity to the work place and affordability is often near the top of a buyer’s list of preferred features. 2016 has continued to be a year when commute times to major job centers widened the price divide between key market areas in the greater Seattle area. Over the last 12 months, the average sales price for a single-family residential home in the Seattle Metro area was $696,000! In south Snohomish County (Everett to the King County line), the average sales price for a single-family residential home was $471,000 – 48% less than Seattle Metro. Further, if you jump across Lake Washington to the Eastside, the average sales price for a single-family residential home was $881,000 – 27% more than Seattle Metro!
The “drive to qualify” mentality has been proven by the pending sales rate in south Snohomish County over the last 12 months. Pending sales are up 7% complete year-over-year, whereas in Seattle Metro pending sales are down 1%, and down 2% on the Eastside. We believe this is a result of affordability, more inventory choices in south Snohomish County, new construction options, lower taxes, strong school district choices, and manageable commute times. Newer transit centers and telecommuting have also opened up doors to King County’s little brother to the north as well. If you are curious about possible commute times, you can search for properties on our website based on commutes times, which is a feature provided by INRIX Drive Time. Also, we track the market in several ways, so if the graphs here are interesting to you, any of our agents would be happy to provide additional information relative to your specific neighborhood. Please contact us anytime, as it is our goal to help keep you informed and empower you to make strong real estate decisions.
Many Factors to Consider When Choosing to Rent vs. Own
*The amount of time you need to own your home in order for owning to be a superior financial decision.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the cost of living in the Greater Seattle area. Whether it has to do with home prices or rental rates the story is the same: it is becoming more and more expensive by the month. With rising rental rates, historically low interest rates, and home prices on the rise, the advantage of buying vs. renting has become clear for folks that have a down payment saved, good debt to income ratios and strong credit. In fact, Seattle is now the 10th most expensive city to rent in the country according to a new study from Zumper.com. The average monthly rental price for a one-bedroom apartment in the city of Seattle is $1,740! Snohomish County has seen an increase in apartment growth and rising rental rates as well. Currently, the breakeven horizon in the Greater Seattle area (the amount of time you need to own your home in order for owning to be a superior financial decision versus renting) is 1.6 years according to Zillow research.
There are several factors to consider that will lead you to make the best decision for your lifestyle and your financial bottom line. One of the biggest factors is interest rates! Currently, the rate for a 30-year fixed, conventional, conforming loan is hovering around 3.5%. That is amazingly and historically low, making the advantage of securing a mortgage huge. What is nice about having a mortgage is that the payment stays the same over the term of the loan. With renting, rates can be increased at any time, and you are paying down someone else's asset, not your own. Owning gives the homeowner control over their overhead while getting to make their house their home. What is also so great about owning is that once you have hit the breakeven horizon, every month that ticks away thereafter is building your nest egg in value. Did you know that American homeowners’ net worth is 36 times the amount of renters? The long term benefits of owning are abundant. These are important factors to consider for everyone, but especially the younger folks that are enjoying the benefits of Seattle’s attractive job market and competitive wages.
Where folks are having to compromise most due to affordability is commute times and settling in less urban neighborhoods. Some people, mainly millennials, have not been willing to give up living in the more core urban neighborhoods that have high walk scores and shorter commute times. That should be apt to change as rents are rising fastest in those areas. The advantages of moving out a little further and securing a home will start people on the track of building long term wealth. If you or anyone you know is currently renting and is considering a change, please let us know, as we would be happy to get your questions answered to help you make an informed decision.
Market Update – Q1 2016
The 2016 real estate market is off to an extreme start! Strong buyer demand due to our flourishing job market and historically low interest rates are the driving force behind this market. Buyers often find themselves competing due to multiple offers which require seller-centric terms in order to win. Prices have continued to grow over the last two years, putting sellers in a very favorable equity position, freeing them up to make the moves they have been waiting for. Additional inventory would help slow price growth and make it less competitive for buyers, creating positive outcomes for everyone. Lending requirements remain stringent, unlike the past “up” market which created the bubble we experienced in 2008.
Scroll down for more details about the first quarter market in Snohomish County, south Snohomish County, north King County, the Eastside, Seattle Metro and south King County.
Snohomish County
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
Snohomish County ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.4 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.8 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 5% and 4% respectively in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 25% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
South Snohomish County
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
South Snohomish County ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.2 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.7 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 5% in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 27% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
North King County
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
North King County ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.1 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.6 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, the average price was up 2% in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 49% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
Eastside
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
The Eastside ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.3 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.9 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 4% in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 43% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
Seattle Metro
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
The Seattle Metro area ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.1 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.6 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 3% in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 47% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
South King County
More inventory is needed to quench buyer demand as we head into spring and summer.
South King County ended 2015 with a larger-than-seasonally-normal surge of closed sales, leaving us with only 1.4 months of inventory based on pending sales to start the year, which is not much! The first quarter saw a frenzy of buyer activity but only a small trickle of new inventory, leaving us with only 0.8 months of inventory heading into the second quarter. This has caused days on market to shrink and list-to-sale price ratios to rise. These conditions are very favorable to sellers. In fact, average and median prices were up 6% and 3% respectively in March over February! The good news is that new listings were up 39% in that same time frame. We hope to see that trend continue as we head into spring, as the buyer demand is there to absorb it and it is needed to slow price growth.
This is only snapshots of the trends in our area. Please contact one of our agents if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.